This is a live report of the keynote given by Michael Aagaard at Conversion Hotel 2023. 

Disappointment as a compass

Michael has been disappointed by many things in his life, but his first real, life-changing experience with disappointment occurred in the glitzy, technology-devoid 1980s, when advertising asserted its power without the digital wizardry of today. It all began with the lure of comic book ads, in which Michael heard the lure of Sea Monkeys. The ads promised aliens that thrived on only water and nutrients. It was an irresistible story for any child. But reality hit hard when the expected aliens turned out to be nothing more than shrimp floating in a tank. A major disappointment that broke Michael's heart and damaged his faith in advertisements forever.

Sea Monkey

Disappointment became his compass and drove him to delve into neuropsychological research, aiming to unravel the intriguing phenomenon that so profoundly determines human behavior. Through his research, Michael taught us that disappointment is the shocking emotional pain when reality does not match our expectations. He revealed the ‘expectation gap’ that often lurks between what we hope for and what actually unfolds.

The expectation gap

The expectation gap refers to the gap between your own prediction of a situation and the actual experience of the situation. An expectation gap can be large, like the Sea Monkeys, but it can also occur on a small scale in our online experiences. Big or small, disappointment brings true pain. For example, Michael's research found that people describe their own online disappointments with intense emotions. Frustration, anger, betrayal, you name it. And here comes the kicker: a whopping 93% promised never to grace that website with their presence again. Disappointment has intense power, sours online interactions and leaves a lasting sting. Neuroscience explains the mechanism behind this disappointment: a veritable dopamine dance of erroneous reward prediction.

Positive and negative prediction errors in rewards

When our predictions about outcomes differ from reality, there are two sides: the positive, where the actual outcome exceeds our expectations, and the negative, where the outcome is disappointing, leading to that sinking feeling of disappointment. These experiences are intrinsically linked to dopamine.

The role of dopamine in learning and adaptation

Dopamine is a chemical that generates pleasure and acts as a key player in our learning process. Think of it as a small chemical reward signal that prompts us to seek out experiences that previously made us happy. Dopamine learns from our experiences and even kicks in when we anticipate those pleasurable experiences, laying the groundwork for our motivation.

The dopamine dip of disappointment.

But here's the twist: during a negative prediction error (read: disappointment), our brain experiences a drop in dopamine levels. That dip in the chemical cocktail has a tangible effect on us - it's a neurochemical event that signals real emotional pain.

Aversion to loss or disappointment. Disappointment, then, is not just a fleeting emotion; it shapes our behavior. Loss aversion or disappointment aversion, an unconscious mechanism, causes us to avoid anything that could potentially lead to pain or disappointment based on our past experiences. Without realizing it, we prioritize every decision with an internal question, “Will this end in disappointment?”

Forming priorities and choices. This unconscious prioritization is a cornerstone of our decision-making. It influences the paths we choose, the actions we take and even the risks we are willing to take. What is striking here is that the fear of disappointment often outweighs the attraction of potential gains, leading us to avoid scenarios that could end in disappointment.
These neural processes, deeply rooted in the wiring of our brains, not only influence our individual choices, but also play a central role in how companies and services interact with their users.

So how do we save users from disappointment? That's the golden question. It's about expectation management - understanding what users expect and making sure their experiences match. Michael advocated an ‘expectation gap analysis,’ linking expectations to experiences to achieve satisfaction.

How do you conduct an expectation gap analysis?

• Expectation measurement up front: Start by gauging users' expectations. Ask them how they expect an experience or task to go. For example, ask about their expected ease or difficulty.
• Post-test experience measurement: Once users have completed the task or experience, evaluate their actual experience. Ask them to rate their experience on a scale and compare it to their original expectations.
• Compare expectations and reality: Analyze the discrepancy between what users expected and what they actually experienced. Identify where the gap lies, whether in functionality, ease of use or other factors.
• Identify areas for improvement: Focus on the problems that contributed most to the expectation gap. Prioritize improvements to aspects that can bridge the gap between expectation and reality for users.

Further, Michael advocates engaging customer reviews to understand their expectations and leveraging tools such as AI to sift through reviews and gain insights to bridge the expectation gap. For example, use ChatGPT or Octoparse.com to scrape reviews, export them to spreadsheets and upload them to ChatGPT for analysis.

Why is research on the expectation gap important?

Because disappointment leads to distrust, which reduces the credibility of a resource. Trust can stimulate behavior, but distrust brings it to a halt.
The silver lining? The paradox of service recovery. It turns out that you can win back customers' hearts after disappointment by contacting them directly, offering help and accommodating them.

In a nutshell, Michaels reveals the profound impact of disappointment and urges us to bridge the gap between expectation and reality with empathy and understanding and maybe, just maybe, turn a disappointment into a loyal fan.